Welcome to 2024! Let’s Talk Real Estate! What do you think will happen this year? Where will the market go? Well, if  2023’s year in real estate was marked by volatility, the market in 2024 might be marked by cautious optimism with a surge in activity based on the lending environment in the spring.

I want to keep you updated on some of the trends we’re seeing — some of which will impact the options available to your clients when deciding whether to sell their house or refinance for a divorce equity buyout. Note: The following are national trends. Below that are local metrics I’ve put together so you can gauge the climate of our local market.

• Mortgage rates are dropping: The beginning of 2024 has seen much-needed relief in terms of rates. Peaking at 7.79% at the end of October 2023, they have dropped to 6.62% at the beginning of January. When we consider that  a 1% change in interest rate is the equivalent to a 10% change in home price, this means buyers are paying almost 12% less for homes today than they were at the end of October. (Click here to see the Federal Reserve’s 30-year mortgage rate historical data.) 
• Home prices continue to rise (in some markets): Even while mortgage rates are down, home prices continue to rise in some markets and soften in others. (Nationally, prices are up 4% year-over year.) National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently noted, “Home prices keep marching higher. Only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation.”
• The number of homes selling is weak, but could recover in 2024: Despite still-high mortgage rates, miserable levels of inventory, and rising home prices, home sales may recover, especially if rates continue to fall. Some economists predict a modest uptick in both home sales and inventory in 2024, still others predict it could decrease if the 10 year treasury yield is impacted this year. 

Local Trend in Prices: 

Currently, in our market we are seeing a Flattening trend where some areas are seeing a slight increase and others are seeing a slight decrease. When leveled out it's a flattening market throughout our area.

Pricing Note: House values can fluctuate through the seasons. Spring is a different market than the fall; mid-summer looks much different from the end of the year. So in order to get an accurate reading as to whether or not prices have fallen or risen, we use the “year over year” barometer. 

Local Days on Market:

Days on Market (“DOM”) Note: This metric tells us how long it takes for homes to sell. This number is largely driven by supply and demand. An uptick in interest rates can cause DOM to increase; a drop in unemployment can cause DOM to decrease. All sorts of economic factors can affect this number, and ultimately, DOM affects pricing. When there are low days on market, prices go up; when DOM increase, prices go down. 

Market conditions are constantly fluctuating. Values that exceed 90 days are likely no longer relevant. If you’d like an updated valuation, feel free to give me a call directly at 469-656-8150 or email me at this address.